In January 2022, no one could’ve predicted that within weeks, Russia would invade Ukraine, with the economic fallout from this war rippling across the world – primarily in sharply higher food and energy prices. This has stoked inflation globally and exacerbated supply chain problems. While it simply isn’t possible to reliably predict the future, there are some clear trends and risks that are likely to affect the next 12 months.

ING analysts Rico Luman and Inga Fechner say that after ‘a bumpy year, 2023 could prove to be even more challenging for the global goods trade, with consumer demand faltering, oversupply returning, and the energy and subsequent inflation crisis persisting’.