It is one industry that will not live up to the expectations of high growth over the long term.

Am I an expert on tourism? No, I know as much about it as the next idiot. But I fancy myself as a bit of a trend spotter. When Tony Blair is criticised in 2006 for flying to the United States for a well-deserved holiday and Prince Charles gets savaged for taking a short trip by air to an official function, I can tell you now that flying across the world to Africa for a two-week holiday is not going to be very politically correct by 2015. At least not in Europe, and the US is bound to follow. (A month or so ago I listened to Al Gore apologetically explaining that he had no choice but to fly from the east to the west coast for a highpowered conference rather than take the train…) And it is unlikely that Africa will have enough people with the means to holiday in the south any time soon to replace the tourists from the developed world.