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Innovation

A disaster waiting to happen

How disaster maps, spatial plans and seasonal readiness are being used to build a city that can take a hit.

01 October 2026

Tinder box: In 2017, nearly 16 000 hectares were burned. The previous 18 months were the driest in the Southern Cape’s recorded history, and bergwinds pushed the flames across the Knysna estuary. Credit: Graham Bawden

The Garden Route stretches over 300km from Mossel Bay in the Western Cape to Storms River in the Tsitsikamma in the Eastern Cape, and while it was named for its resemblance to a well-tended park, it’s also riddled with invader plants. One is the black wattle from Australia, first planted in the 1870s for windbreaks, fuel and fencing, and now considered the single largest environmental threat to the Southern Cape and the Garden Route District Municipality. Left alone, Acacia mearnsii grows in dense clumps, which increases the fuel load in an area. In 2017, nearly 16 000 hectares were burned. The 18 months preceding the blaze were the driest in the Southern Cape’s recorded history, so the vegetation was already a tinder box when bergwinds pushed the flames across the Knysna estuary.

“The vegetation has a lot of oils in the leaves so when it burns, it’s much hotter and more intense,” says Robyn Pharoah, programme coordinator at Stellenbosch University’s Research Alliance for Disaster and Risk Reduction (RADAR). “So, unless, after a fire, you do a very large alien-clearing initiative in the area, in a matter of months, you will have regeneration and a massive increase in fuel load.”

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